The Joules did this

Hungary lands the deal of the century from the Emperor. The modern world runs on cheap energy.

The purpose of this Substack is to bore foreigners who seem to have a perverse fascination with Hungary with the Hungarian perspective (as all blogs, it’s also somewhat masturbatory). I haven’t written a post here since March, not out of laziness, but for lack of anything substantial on this eastern front.

I’ve covered the basics starting from Election Day last November to Pence’s introduction of the Trumpian Stick to the European elite this February, then I’ve lain dormant in anticipation: will all this outspoken friendship between the PM of a small province and the Emperor bear any fruit beyond words?

9 months have passed and barely anything has happened, bar the occasional “Thank you Viktor, very cool!”. The double taxation treaty between the U.S. and Hungary, in effect from 1979 until 2022, when the demented Biden crime family and the homosexual gangsters running the State Department unilaterally terminated it in a petty fit, remained kaput.

It’s been 10 months since the inauguration, an entire year since the victory, and nothing to show for it in Budapest, beyond gestures — until this week.

The Hungarian delegation, which was pretty much the entire top government, flew on a Wizz Air Airbus to Washington. This prompted the usual, sadistic, small-dick energy posts from Hungarian Reddit — which is even more toxic than the English-speaking one — wishing for a plane crash. The plane had to stop in Iceland to refuel, as it lacks the range, but the choice was symbolic: since our national airline ceased operating in 2012, Wizz Air is our de facto flag carrier, being based in Hungary. As a European budget airline, it doesn’t operate intercontinental aircraft.

The fruits of this trip are still being debated and remain to be seen in practice, but the two important points are these:

1. Exemption from sanctions regarding Russian oil and gas imports

2. Support for the completion of our nuclear plant upgrade (Russian tech)

It’s the usual racket with America winning some contracts in exchange; but nobody complains, it’s the price of protection, even among the most bigly friends. The top dog’s slogan is “America first!”, what did you expect?

It’s excellent news for us, Hungarians. Aren’t you also happy?

If you’re disappointed or angry, there can be many reasons: Trump Derangement Syndrome, Orban Derangement Syndrome, wanting to win a nuclear war against Vatnikistan, loving Brussels more than your mother, whichever way the lizard people molested you to the point of mental retardation. Let me try to explain why you’re wrong! People love that.

I was a doomer before it was cool

The 2008 financial crisis caught me in a weak spot, being a university student with no income or savings, in a country which was already mismanaged to the point of recession by 2007.

I was understandably gloomy regarding my future prospects, so, while trying to kill boredom online, the Peak Oil theory caught me at the best/worst possible time. I went down that depressing hole deep and hard.

Peak Oil was not about “the oil running out”; on the contrary, it predicted that the economy would crash when half of it — the more expensive half — is still in the ground. I’m oversimplifying it. Just bear with me.

The autistic survivalists and hobby energy experts of the movement were desperately trying to find a way out of oil, a way to avoid the crash, but their conclusion — mind you, this was 15 years ago — was that you can’t out-solar-panel, out-windmill, out-battery your way away from hydrocarbons. The EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) is insufficient: renewables provide less Joules than the Joules they require to be made.

We need cheap and abundant energy to run a modern industrialized civilization.

We need oil.

Later, in the 2010s, after my doomer phase was over, I also learned that any serious renewable energy project needs an equal amount of turnkey natural gas backup to function.

We need oil and natural gas.

Can you show Hungary on a map?

Hungary is a middle-income economy, and as such, it’s stuck in the middle-income trap: we must remain cost-effective to remain competitive, otherwise foreign capital flees. If the energy bills go up, we don’t have less money to buy groceries; we have no money at all, because the multinational companies move to a more affordable country. Sanctions that raise energy prices hit us sooner and harder than they hit high-income countries.

We need affordable oil and natural gas, or we’re doomed.

There’s a historical reason why Russian pipelines and Russian reactors power Hungary: they used to be Soviet pipelines and Soviet reactors. The maps changed, the pipes stayed.

There’s a geographic reason why Russian pipelines and Russian reactors power Hungary: we’re right next to the Russkies (formerly the Soviet Union).

Hungary is a small, landlocked country, in the armpit of the Russkies, with the Balkans at our underbelly (don’t get me started on Romanians). I can think of better places to have my country, at lower latitudes to begin with, but here we are.

We have no seaport: even our American🇺🇸 LNG would have to come through the untrustworthy and usurious Balkan criminal enterprise known as “Croatia”. They’re already rubbing their swarthy, nicotine-stained hands, contemplating their cut from the Trump-Orban deal.

Imagine a diesel BMW, stolen from Western Europe, running on used cooking oil left over from the tourist season, with a bored Croatian inside scrolling his phone — also stolen from a tourist — in the middle of a “work” day. Why would you want to make such people happy?

Hungary is not in a position to be picky: we need cheap energy or our economy collapses. The same is true for Western Europe, which is already crumbling, but they have a lot more money to burn before the consequences catch up to them, we don’t; had we gone along with their sanction regime since 2022, it would have hit us way sooner and way harder. So far, we’ve dodged it, although having our economy intimately tied to Germany’s, our room to maneuver is severely constrained. If the Krauts continue to march towards industrial suicide, we’re also toast.

So, this deal is not a victory. The future of Hungary is not secure. But with all the animosity and insecurity this cursed decade has so far dumped on our country, it’s a huge relief. As far as gestures from superpowers go, it’s unprecedented in this century, and in hindsight, beats any gesture from the superpowers in the 20th century. It is a big, beautiful deal.

It’s also a good-natured, well-needed fuck you to an insanely belligerent Brussels, which is always appreciated, increasingly so throughout Europe.