Tango Down: Orban beats Orban
Hungary is interesting again
My foreign virtual friends have been pestering me for a week to get my opinion on what happened in Hungary. So, about JD Vance’s visit to Budapest... just kidding! Orban lost the election a week ago.
First on Tango Down: UK readers are familiar with the soft drink Tango. We used to have it in Hungary in the late 90s, and the ad campaign featured an orange guy. Fidesz’s party color is orange.
In a nutshell: Orban was beaten by a younger Orban. To be more precise: Hungarians elected a fresh, unencumbered Orban.
This statement would piss off 5+ million Hungarians: both the base of Viktor Orban (Fidesz) and Peter Magyar (Tisza) would be offended. Fortunately my audience is foreign, so I can be honest.
Orbán, Péter: I’ll be ditching the umlauts for clarity from now on.
The guy is an enigma. There’s a lot of wishful projection onto him by European elites and Hungarian voters that are unfounded. I’m also making a projection with the bold statement above, but mine is based on the few facts we know.
He spent most of his adult life in the political community of Fidesz, spent time in Brussels as part of their delegation, and was married to a high-ranking minister until 2023. All he promised was to get rid of Orban. Nothing more, nothing specific beyond the obvious implications, like a major positive shift in EU-Hungarian relations.
His bio up until now is ultimately irrelevant: he’ll be writing his new one with the carte blanche of a two-thirds majority in the coming months. We’ll know more by the 20th of August, when he’ll be in power for 100 days — a period Hungarians reserve to newcomers before we make a judgement1. 20th of August is a national holiday in Hungary, the anniversary of beating the Romanians in the Hyperwar 3000 years ago.2
The signs favor my prediction: he’s already made statements opposing mass immigration, and his prime candidate for Minister of Education and Culture is currently leading a Catholic religious institution.
We’ll know more by the 20th of August. Meanwhile, I’ll try to give you a bite-sized breakdown of the whole situation, what lead to this, in the coming weeks.
It’s nice to be back!
I mix British and American English, just roll with it
Actually, Romanians were invented in 1972
Also AMA in the comments, to workshop future posts. It's a huge topic, a post-mortem of a 16 year long, Merkel-like hegemony.
My relatives in Veszprem area are still withholding judgement. My cousins don't trust Tisza or Peter Magyar. I understand where they are coming from.